Week 10 of college football has got to be one of the best slates of the season. With only a handful of games remaining, some matchups have major implications for conference titles and beyond. Here’s what I like for week 10.
Tennessee +8.5 and ML (+250) at Georgia
The Vols’ offense is averaging 47 points per game with QB Hendon Hooker. He can scramble (338 yards rushing), evade the pass rush (just 12 sacks) and throw it (#1 in the nation in yards per pass attempt). The Georgia defense lacks passing rush, ranking 117th in the country, and loses its best LB to Nolan Smith, who has just three total sacks in eight games. The Bulldogs allowed 8.5 passing yards and 22 points at Kent State and 7.3 passing yards and 20 points at Florida. This game is reminiscent of last year’s opener against Alabama. QB Bryce Young had three carries for 40 yards and 420 passing yards for Alabama in a 41-24 win in the SEC Championship Game. Forty meters might not seem like a big number, but it was meters that happened at the most important moment.
LSU +13.5 vs. Alabama
The local Death Valley crowd will be loud. The LSU Tigers have one of the best home-court advantages in college football and possess one of the best second-half defenses in the nation. LSU has the seventh-best second-half defense in the FBS, limiting opponents to seven points per game in the second half this season. We saw just how dominating a defensive force the Tigers can when they held Ole Miss to zero points in the second half two weeks ago.
Alabama is struggling on the road – just 2-5 ATS over the past two seasons. Bryce Young had just one touchdown pass at Texas early in the season, completed 53% of his passes and had one interception against Arkansas before his injury, and sure enough, Alabama suffered his first loss of the season against Tennessee on the road. His only loss of the 2021 regular season was at Texas A&M. A lack of focus on the road is a concern, with the Crimson Tide producing 14 penalties per game on the road compared to just five at home.
Texas Tech +8 at TCU
The Horned Frogs are 106th against the pass. TCU allowed 10.9 passing yards to Kansas quarterback Jason Bean and 7.9 passing yards to Oklahoma’s Dillon Gabriel before leaving the game with an injury. The TCU defense was lucky for the opposing quarterback, facing reinforcements against Oklahoma, Kansas and Kansas State. Texas Tech has a top-10 passing offense, averaging 338 passing yards per game with quarterbacks Donovan Smith and Behren Morton, who have 18 combined touchdowns. TCU’s luck will run out.
South Florida at Temple under 51.5
The Temple Owls have a very good defense, especially at home. You can read my full reasoning to support the below here.
Air Force to Army under 40.5
The Army Knights are the last five to defend the race and now face the Air Force’s #1 Rush Attack. The Air Force leads in rushing yards, but averages 4.9 yards per rush on the road compared to 5.6 when playing at home. The Air Force is also 84th in red zone attempts and barely ranks in the top 50 in touchdowns scored. Air Force and Army are in the bottom 40 in games per game, and both are in the top 10 in possession time.
I looked back to see when the Army had such poor running defense. In 2019, he was bottom 30 in opposing yards per carry, and in 2017 he was bottom 10 against the rush. In both years, neither matchup broke the 30-point mark.
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