With the penultimate college football playoff standings released on Tuesday, it’s time to take a look at the prospects of the teams still in the hunt for the four-team group. There are essentially five teams vying for those spots, only four of which actually participate in conference championship games played on Friday and Saturday.
Since it’s such a short list this year, we’ve expanded this annual story to include a look at the possibilities that exist for the four remaining New Year’s Eve games outside of the playoffs. There’s not a lot of flexibility with so many conference connections involved, but there’s still some intrigue.
Without further ado, here is the list of the remaining CFP candidates in order of their current ranking along with an explanation of what each team can accomplish this weekend. Let’s see how these teams stack up against the league week and final CFP standings ahead.
College Football Playoff Journey
New Year’s six paths
The six New Year options are more. Once the CFP pairings have been established, the Rose, Sugar and Orange Bowls will select the teams for their games. Here’s how it’s going to go.
pink bowl
If the Big Ten and/or Pac-12 champions advance to the playoffs, the bowl chooses their replacements. Traditionally, these would be the highest-ranked remaining teams from those conferences. However, the Rose Bowl has the option of choosing its participants from a “group” of teams of the same level.
Had Michigan and USC both won this weekend, the Rose Bowl could have ended up with a rematch of last year’s game featuring Ohio State and Utah. That would have been less than ideal. La Rose looked set to insert No. 8 Penn State of the Big Ten and/or No. 12 Washington of the Pac-12 to ensure the game didn’t get repeated. The Buckeyes have played in the Rose Bowl twice in the past four years, while the Nittany Lions haven’t been in the game since 2016. The Huskies were a Pac-12 possibility as Utes, in addition to playing in the Rose Bowl last year. , would also have suffered their fourth defeat.
However, that all became moot on Friday night with Utah beating USC to ensure the Pac-12 champion qualified for the Rose Bowl. With Ohio State entering the playoffs and Michigan already in a spot, Penn State is now projected for the Rose Bowl as a representative of the Big Ten. The wild card is Purdue, which would automatically be in this game if the Boilermakers become the Spoilermakers against Michigan.
- Michigan wins: Penn State vs. Utah
- Purdue wins: Purdue vs. Utah
Sugar
Likewise, the Sugar Bowl features SEC and Big 12 conference champions. The Big 12 situation is set. Since TCU will be a win-or-lose playoff team, Kansas State will be in the Sugar Bowl either as the Big 12 champion or as a replacement for the Horned Frogs. If Georgia wins, No. 6 Alabama will replace the Bulldogs in this game. Otherwise, LSU becomes the conference champion.
- Georgia wins: Alabama vs. Kansas State
- LSU wins: LSU vs. Kansas State
orange bowl
This bowl only gets one conference champion. The ACC title winner is the anchor with No. 9 Clemson against No. 23 North Carolina deciding the berth as neither team can reach the playoffs. The opponent is the highest-ranked remaining SEC, Big Ten, or Notre Dame team that does not make the playoffs, Rose Bowl, or Sugar Bowl. This representative will come from the SEC and will be either Alabama or number 7 Tennessee.
- Georgia wins: Tennessee vs. Clemson or North Carolina
- LSU wins: Alabama vs. Clemson or North Carolina
cotton bowl
It’s the only game with at-large spots. One of them will go to the automatic qualifying group of five, which will be the winner of the AAC battle between No. 18 Tulane and No. 22 UCF. The other spot simply goes to the highest rated team that is not already in a New Year Six game.
These options will be USC, Tennessee, or Washington. Which is unknown where USC will fall, but at 11-2, the Trojans are the team most likely to secure the final spot in the New Year’s Six.
The highest-ranked team that has no chance of playing in the New Year’s Six is the No. 13 Florida State. However, that doesn’t mean all of the top 12 teams will qualify. In fact, the AAC champion won’t be in the top 12, and Purdue wouldn’t rank that high either, even as a Big Ten champion.
Beyond this list of contenders, CBS Sports has released my update bowl screenings for the 2022-23 season Friday night. Reminder: These projections do not reflect the current state of affairs, but rather how I expect them to look after Saturday’s conference championship games.
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