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Allowed Schedule Adjusted Fantasy Points, or aFPA, is 4for4’s answer to biased statistics. By removing bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an apples-to-apples fashion. As the season progresses, the data changes. Either way, aFPA is arguably the best tool available to gain an advantage when using overrides and creating lineups.
Another point to underline: I could suggest to players like Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes pretty much every week, especially when facing awful units according to the aFPA. This doesn’t do everyone a favor, so I’ll do my best to avoid registered players in the majority of fantasy leagues.
Here are the best games of week 15.
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Despite going 3:2 TD to INT in three starts, Mike White has cracked fantastic double-digit runs in every outing. He suffered a narrow loss to Buffalo in Week 14 and is considered day-to-day ahead of a juicy home game against the Detroit Lions. Detroit continues to be cellar dwellers in the aFPA landscape, but is at its worst against opposing quarterbacks. Only two teams allow more schedule-adjusted fantasy points at the position. Lions can accumulate points, exceeding 30 in 7 games. It’s going to be a tough game for them against a strong Jets defense, but with both teams getting consistent offensive line play lately, this game could end in a shootout. White has passed 300 passing yards in two of three starts.
If White can’t go, it looks like the Jets would go back to Zach Wilson instead of Joe Flacco. Flacco would have been a Superflex/Two-QB league option, but Wilson would be hard to trust even in a game over.
Damien Harris (thigh) missed Week 14 and Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) left in the Week 14 win over the Cardinals. Strong was asked to help fill the void at running back and had 90 yards and a rushing touchdown on seven total touches. He drove in 68 more yards than fellow RB rookie Kevin Harris, although both found the end zone. Strong has draw capital attached to him and has better speed and burst than Kevin Harris, which would lead to more expected production. Week 14 was horrible in terms of skill position injuries, making Strong a priority addition (available in 89% of Yahoo leagues) and a potential RB2/Flex game in Week 15 depending on how the stats go. injuries with the Patriots.
This is an elite game for Michael Pittman Jr., but there’s no reason not to play against Alec Pierce. The Vikings are 32nd in WR aFPA, allowing 3.9 more schedule-adjusted fantasy points at position per game than the 31st-ranked Titans. Pierce has shown promise working with Matt Ryan, and since Sam Ehlinger’s experience is long in the rearview mirror, Pierce has a legitimate edge every week. Minnesota has allowed at least two WRs to double-digit PPR points in five straight games, including four in Week 14.
It’s likely the Broncos and Cardinals will start backup QBs in Week 15. In Dulcich’s case, it’s not too bad to see assists from Brett Rypien if he starts. Rypien came in cold in Week 14 after Russell Wilson left with a concussion. Rypien has targeted the TE position twice in eight attempts. Neither went to Dulcich, but with a week of practice that should increase their chances of being TE’s prime target. The Cardinals continue to allow the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing TEs and have been excellent against the WR (10th in WR aFPA). Dulcich is still in the TE1 picture for Week 15 in the best game of his young career.
Kansas City is usually a defense to target, but the Houston Texans are struggling with poor QB play and WR injuries. This is one of the reasons they rank 32nd in schedule-adjusted fantasy points awarded to opposing defenses. If Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins stay out in Week 15, it will be easier for the Chiefs to target Chris Moore, who looked like a Pro Bowler in Week 14 against the Cowboys. The Texans are also expected to be without Dameon Pierce this week, making it imperative that Rex Burkhead and Dare Ogunbowale have cap weeks.
It’s not easy to predict because Kansas City is allowing 86 rushing yards per game. The Chiefs offense can score (duh), which puts a lot of pressure on Davis Mills and the Texans passing game. KC hasn’t cleared a 300-yard passer since Week 7 and can rack up some fantastic points early to make up for a potentially explosive play scenario.
This story originally appeared on 4for4.com
More from 4for4.com: O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Take Advantage of in Week 15
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Jeff has been practicing fantasy sports since 2001. He has covered fantasy and traditional sports at the professional, semi-professional and amateur levels for the better part of a decade. Born in Illinois and currently living where james robinson made a name for himself in college, Jeff likes to run (establish it), followed by doing nothing.
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