I’m in an NFL contest submitting five ATS picks every week. Lines are fixed spreads published every Wednesday and selections are submitted on Friday evening. As this is the last week of the regular season, I hope to close the contest strong. Here are my five contest picks for Week 18.
Panthers +3.5 to Saints
I’m not a big fan of teams that have nothing to play for. These are professionals looking to increase their salary, get incentives, boost their resume for another team, or extend their contracts. Neither the Panthers nor the Saints will see the playoffs, so each will be looking to finish strong with no prospects for next week. Carolina’s rushing offense has been exceptional lately, averaging more than 200 rushing yards per game, while quarterback Sam Darnold leads the league in yards per pass attempt. The Saints defense, though improved, gave up 231 rushing yards in a three-point win over the Falcons in Week 15 and another 217 rushing yards against the Steelers in Week 10. expect it to be competitive.
The Lions can make the playoffs with a win and a Seahawks loss. Either way, you can always count on head coach Dan Campbell to keep his team ready to fight until the end. Perhaps that’s one of the reasons Detroit has covered eight of the last nine games. You can look at Jared Goff’s spreads and see he’s only got six passing touchdowns on the road. However, it’s Detroit’s running unit that does the damage on offense. The Packers defense is 31st in the DVOA race. The Lions are 4-0 against teams that rank in the bottom five in this metric. Even if Seattle gets a win, I can see the Lions fighting to play the spoiler to keep Aaron Rodgers & Co. out of the playoffs.
Jaguars -6 vs. Titans
The winner wins the AFC South, plus a home playoff next weekend. The Jaguars can still enter the playoffs with a loss, but the Steelers, Patriots and Dolphins would have to lose. I love the evolution of Trevor Lawrence with this offense for the Jags, who has scored at least 31 points in three of the last four games. In those games, Lawrence completed 72% of his passes with seven passing touchdowns, while ranking among the top 10 in the league in passing yards.
The Titans rested everyone in Week 17, but that could backfire, starting potentially rusty and out of rhythm. The Titans’ defense is vulnerable against the pass, ranking 32nd in passing yards allowed, and gave up 36 points and 368 passing yards to the Jags in Week 14. Jacksonville has only improved since .
49ers -14 vs. Cardinals
It’s a big gap for the final week of the regular season, but the 49ers need to keep pace with Brock Purdy entering the playoffs with just five starts. Playing at home with Purdy behind center, San Fran is averaging 35 points per game, while limiting opponents to 15 points per game. This could be a scenario where the 49ers dominate early and seat players late.
Steelers -2.5 vs. Browns
The Browns are out, while the Steelers can reach the playoffs with a win, plus a Patriots and Dolphins loss. Pittsburgh has shown huge improvements in the running game this season. Najee Harris has rushed for at least 86 yards in five of the last eight games, including 111 yards last week against the Ravens. The Browns’ defense has been solid against the pass, but ranks in the bottom eight against the run. Just two weeks ago, the Browns allowed 152 rushing yards in a 17-10 loss to the Saints. Additionally, Pittsburgh sits at 8-8 this season. You better believe that Mike Tomlin wants to keep his record streak of 15 consecutive seasons without a losing record intact.
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