The NFL score remained stable in Week 14, with teams averaging 22.8 points per game.
We went 3-0 in targeting overs, capitalizing on totals in the mid-40s with some of the weakest defenses in the league. However, one should always look at each week with fresh eyes. The edges you used to enjoy are probably gone, but these tweaks also create opportunities to target new angles.
As fun as betting is, it seems the gambling gods have forced us back into the world of sweating third downs and cheering for the punt team. One of my two best bets is a sub, but I’m okay with a lousy win if we can keep the momentum going.
When they zigzag, we zag. We bet the Eagles on the total last week against the Giants, and now we’re playing under despite playing another struggling defense. Over the past three weeks, the Eagles are 3-0 over with an average of 41 points. But here’s why I think we might be disappointed with the NFL’s strongest offense.
Philadelphia’s overs were close to the automatic at home (6-1) but only 3-3 on the road. Last week’s offensive explosion at MetLife Stadium was impressive but not the norm. The Eagles’ offense has thrown up some wreckage away from home (Arizona, Indianapolis), and this will be the first time they’ve played back-to-back road games this season. Bank on the windy conditions (15mph) and the clock to keep running as both coaches rely on their rushing offense more than usual. Philadelphia has only finished as high as three other times this season, and it will be the first time since Week 5. Only one of those three games has ended. So let’s take advantage of the inflated number.
The weather won’t play a part in this one, but Denver has managed to drag nearly every team through the mud with them this season. They are 11-2 under and are the worst scoring team in the NFL with 14.9 points per game. Add to that injuries likely forced us to face Brett Rypien against Colt McCoy, and we have it all for a total of 37 points. While neither offense is inspiring, neither defense justifies such a low total.
Chances are the offenses will be better this week. Both coaches need a win in the worst possible way and must be ready to open the playbook to get it. I like that Arizona has always tried to attack New England with Murray out, and they’ll be better prepared with McCoy getting reps this week. Denver’s inability to keep up practices began to wear down their defense. Since Week 9, they’ve fallen to around league average EPA per play allowed.
The Broncos should also have more success on offense despite the absence of Russell Wilson. Arizona’s struggles to stop the run should allow Hackett to keep Rypien in manageable situations. It won’t be fun to watch, but I’m confident the final score will be high enough to get us to the window.
Statistics provided by teamrankings.com, rbsdm.comsoccer underdogs.
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