Teams are helping with search and rescue operations in Diyarbakir and other parts of southern Turkey that were hit by strong earthquakes on Monday. If someone says they’re predicting a move, a seismologist tells NPR, the predictions are “disputing.”
Ilyas Akenigin / Amet via Getty Images
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Ilyas Akenigin / Amet via Getty Images
Teams are helping with search and rescue operations in Diyarbakir and other parts of southern Turkey that were hit by strong earthquakes on Monday. If someone says they’re predicting a move, a seismologist tells NPR, the predictions are “disputing.”
Ilyas Akenigin / Amet via Getty Images
No scientist “has ever predicted an earthquake,” says the US Geological Survey. The point is that the repetition bears: On the same day an earthquake of magnitude 7.8 and a string of aftershocks caused thousands of deaths in Turkey and Syria, social media was examined when a bogus claims that the cataclysm was predicted in the coming days.
The latest case of winning someone’s attention is making “announcements and predictions” that seemed to be exaggerated, Susan Hough, a seismologist in the Earthquake Crisis Program at the USGS, told NPR.
“So, yeah, it’s the clock stopped right twice a day, basically,” he said.
Thousands of video warning tweets from the mystical movement
When the news of the tragedy in southern Turkey and northern Syria was spread on Monday, millions of people also saw it on 3 February. tweet, which warned that a strong earthquake would hit the same area. The viral message was from a Dutch man named Frank Hoogerbeets.
If his name rings a bell, it’s possible that Hoogerbeets also clearly stated in 2015 that he knew the exact time California would be hit by The Big One: on May 28, 2015, he urged people to have an escape plan ready. or a higher magnitude of 8.8 warning of severe danger.
In more recent warnings, Hoogerbeets tweeted, “Sooner or later there will be an earthquake #M 7.5 in this region (South-Central Turkey, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon). He included a map, showing a red circle in almost the same area where the earthquake hit.
But the place is a place of frequent activity: where three tectonic plates meet. As sad as the human toll is, a strong earthquake “hasn’t shocked any earthquake scientist,” Hough said. “Turkey is a known earthquake zone. We know about these faults, we know that an earthquake of this magnitude is possible.”
Hoogerbeets did not immediately respond to NPR’s request for a response to the scholars who are questioning his rights.
In the past, Hoogerbeets has been described as an amateur earthquake “studier” and a “seismic mystic” who believes that the movement of the planets in our solar system can predict earthquakes. In response to his naysayers, Hoogerbeets acknowledged “a lot of resistance in the scientific community about the influence of the planets and the moon” on seismic activity on Earth. He thought that this attitude was “assumption” to receive his dignity by sharing the image of God 1959 letter to the editor in nature magazine
The USGS is unequivocal: no one can predict an earthquake.
“We don’t know how, and we don’t know how at any time in the foreseeable future,” the company says. “USGS researchers can only calculate the probability that a significant earthquake will occur in a certain area within a certain number of years.”
The movements of the Moon and dozens of strong aftershocks reach an area that is known to be seismically active: It is in an area characterized by the “triple junction”, where three tectonic plates (in this case, the Anatolian, Arabian and African plates) meet. Three years ago, a magnitude 6.7 earthquake shook the northern area of this devastating earthquake.
The USGS encourages the public consider the three elements that make up a true and accurate earthquake prediction: date and time, location and magnitude. Hoogerbeets admonition to strike a motion “sooner or later” falls well short of the first requirement.
Hough says he was among those who saw the tweet from Hoogerbeets. And while he is studying the alignments of the planets, he says that others have been asking that ionospheric motions be influenced in some way by hanging on a signal.
“You just keep getting these promises as if they were promised, but no one has confirmed the tracks of the specific ads,” he said. “If something panned out, it would be a test in football. Someone could predict an earthquake with certainty with a trace, and the whole world would notice if someone did it. No one.”
Hoogerbeets rejects the USGS criteria; the site of its operation, the Solar System Geometry Survey, He says it’s “unrealistic” to require such a specific earthquake forecast.
Concussion experts focus on preparation, not predictions
“Prediction is not really the name of the game in this business,” Hough said. “We want the buildings to stay standing.”
This field of study deals with things like engineering and construction systems. Scientists and others are working to improve preparations and fast-track systems, hoping that worst-case scenarios will prevent the mission.
“One of my colleagues told me that years of earthquakes can predict how much we need,” he said. “We know they’re going to happen and we know certain parts of the world are going to be exposed to them and we just need to create the environment accordingly.”
With enough sensors and a sophisticated computer network, Hough says, emergency systems can send a quick warning once an earthquake has started.
“It’s like the difference between lightning and thunder,” he said, describing the way the message in the alarm system is faster than the speed of the shock. And in the event of a potential disaster, even 10 seconds can make a big difference.
“It’s not going to help your building. You know, you give somebody 10 seconds to warn you, the building is standing, or it’s not,” Hough said. “But there are protective actions that you can take at very short notice. There are systems that slow down trains, for example. You can move elevators to the next floor and open doors to prevent them from getting stuck.”
“You can just take away that horrible element of unpredictability,” he said, which people find terrifying.
And then there are the buildings themselves. The scale of the damage was still matched in Turkey and Syria. But in video footage of companies devastated by earthquakes and aftershocks, Hough said there are things that could help prevent future damage: Some structures are still standing, next to buildings that suffered horrific collapses.
“And this I say unto thee, that thou canst be made, and build buildings that stand.”
#predict #earthquakes #USGS
