Missouri picked up a blowout victory in the first leg of its two-game road trip on Saturday, beating Georgia, 85-63.
The Tigers are on course to qualify for the NCAA Tournament, despite losing their final two games of the regular season. support projectMizzou’s matrix had been included in the 97 predictions on Tuesday, with the team listed as high as a No. 5 seed and as low as a No. 10 seed, averaging 8.30.
The discrepancy in where Missouri should be ranked stems from the chasm between CV metrics and predictive metrics. The Tigers have the 18th-best all-time ranking strength, with five Quad 1 wins and an unbeaten 16-0 record against Quad 2-4 opponents. But the team sits on the fringes of KenPom’s top 50 rankings and the NCAA’s NET rankings.
The 22-point win over the Bulldogs helped improve Mizzou’s predictive metrics a bit, rising from 62nd to 53rd on KenPom and 51st to 49th on NET. Playing in the same dominant fashion against a team like LSU won’t move the needle much in terms of record strength, but could help gain ground in predictive metrics.
Missouri defeated LSU in its first meeting on Feb. 1 inside Mizzou Arena, 87-77. LSU trailed by 13 points at halftime but edged the hosts 42-39 in the second half. LSU has gone 1-6 since then, their only win at home against Vanderbilt. With this week’s game being LSU’s final home game of the year, the MU head coach Denis Gates said he was waiting for LSU head coach Matt McMahon to have its players compete at their best.
“They are not what their record says they are. You know, they have great dynamic tracks and they have a style that I think can cause problems,” Gates said. “They do a good job. They can throw the ball, they have a dynamic shooter, guys who can drive, guys they can get to the free throw line and obviously guys they can send the ball.
TIP TIME INFORMATION
Missouri (21-8, 9-7 SEC) at LSU (13-16, 2-14)
WHEN: 8pm CT
OR: Maravich Assembly Center, Baton Rouge, Louisiana
TV: SEC Network
SERIES: LSU leads, 11-3
KENPOM PREDICTION: Missouri 79, LSU 75
PROJECTED BEGINNERS
IN NUMBERS
BEST LINE OF THE LAST 5 OUTINGS (PER CBB ANALYTICS)
Nick Honor-Tre Gomillion-D’Moi Hodge-Noah Carter-Aidan Shaw
Minutes played: 6
Offensive Rating: 140.3
Defensive Rating: 54.0
Net score: +86.3
KEYS TO THE GAME
1. Hold KJ Williams. The senior striker was his team’s top scorer in his first meeting with Mizzou, posting 15 points on 6-10 shooting from the field. However, Williams was in the midst of a shooting slump at the time. From January 7 to February 4, Missouri was the only team he shot more than 50 percent against from the field. He has since returned to form, shooting over 50% in three of his last four games. Williams burned Vanderbilt in an 84-77 win last week, going 5-10 from the 3-point line and dropping 35 points, tying its season high. He still had 29 points on Saturday in an 82-69 loss to Ole Miss. For Mizzou to emerge victorious by a comfortable margin, he must prevent Williams from taking control of the game.
2. Prepare for backtracking. LSU is above average on offensive glass, getting 30.5% of available misses according to KenPom. The team capitalized on their advantage in their opener against Missouri, scoring 18 second-chance points on 15 offensive rebounds while holding the Midwest Tigers to seven second-chance points on five offensive rebounds. Williams and junior forward Derek Fountain led the way, grabbing 10 combined offensive rebounds. According to CBB Analytics, LSU is attempting 4.8 field goals per game, which ranks 17th in the nation. The team isn’t that effective with their extra chances, only achieving 56.1% of their backhands. But Mizzou’s goal should be to box and limit the volume of second chances LSU receives.
3. Keep one hand above the break. LSU isn’t a great shooting team, making 33.0 percent of its shots from beyond the arc. But the team is significantly better when shooting 3s anywhere but the corners – according to CBB Analytics, triples over the break account for 29.8% of LSU’s field goal attempts this season, where they have cashed a clip of 34.2%. Those numbers have increased over the past five games, with LSU shooting 36.4% of their treys over the break and 31.3% of their shots from there. The team isn’t as good in the corners, where they only made 30.5% of their 3-pointers. To keep the Southern Tigers from keeping pace on offense, Missouri will have to slow them down from the outside.
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