The UFC closes the door in February this weekend with UFC Vegas 70: Nikita Krylov vs. Ryan Spann. This is the second consecutive Apex install ahead of next weekend’s massive pay-per-view. The 13-fight map should provide plenty of fireworks, with finishing potential all over the map. I could easily see all five main card fights end early. It will be that kind of night.
As punters, we want this action. I will take decisive finishes on the decisions of the judges every time. Nothing is worse than sweating helpless scorecards in an MMA fight due to the unpredictable range of outcomes that come with the scoring criteria. And there are inexplicable times when the judges get it wrong, and your pocket pays the price.
I’d be shocked if we were to worry about the judges for Saturday night’s main event, as the five-round fight is currently +400 to go the distance at BetMGM, which could still be short. Of Spann and Krylov’s 50 career wins, 45 (90%) have come from stoppage time. The volatility of pitting two finishers against each other also makes handicapping difficult. Whether Krylov or Spann raises his hand, the outcome will depend on which fighter can capitalize on his opponent’s mistake first and land the big hit or flurry. I’m not in love with Krylov or Spann at current money line odds, so let’s look at a few ways to approach this fight.
Nikita Krylov (-165) vs. Ryan Spann (+140)
Krylov is riding a two-fight winning streak after picking up a decision over Volkan Oezdemir at UFC 280. Krylov has no problem moving forward with a punching arsenal and leading the fight against his opponents. Once he forces them back into the cage, he can soften them up in the clinch before unloading a barrage of kicks. He’s a tornado once the cage door locks, but his reckless approach leaves him very open defensively, and Spann is a fighter who can end the fight with a small opening.
Spann is coming off back-to-back first-round finishes, with Dominic Reyes being his latest casualty last November. Spann has enormous size, physique and power for the division. Krylov was extremely resilient, but taking clean shots from Spann will have him stare at the lights and ask his cornerman what happened.
The fight comes down to whether Krylov can show some discipline early and avoid danger while pounding Spann with kicks from range. It cannot be sucked into the pocket or attached in the melee. Anything nearby is where Spann is most dangerous and trying to survive these exchanges won’t end well. Despite Spann’s power, Krylov has the tools to make up for Spann’s attack by mixing up distance management, grappling and maintaining high motor to drain Spann’s cardio. Krylov should be able to drag Spann past the first round, where the odds change more in his favor.
I like Krylov winning the fight, but I’m not running out the window to put -165. There’s probably more value on Spann’s side at +140 due to the coin-flip nature of his fights. However, it already feels like bettors have caught lightning in a bottle with Spann as their dog against Reyes, and playing him to win again feels like going to the pit too often. That’s how I landed on Krylov in the -110 distance. We know it’s unlikely that any of them will make it all five tricks, so this bet allows us to back Krylov at your standard price of -110.
The Bet: Nikita Krylov via KO/TKO/DQ/Submission -110
Two additional betting options for the main event
Less than 1.5 turns -135
The underside is always worth a look in a true “who gets who first” scenario. Spann hasn’t been out of the first round in his last five fights, which shows how his defense crumbles when he’s not able to get the early knockout. Even if Krylov goes straight to his grappling, Spann locking up a guillotine or Krylov finishing him on the ground is both more realistic than those two scrambles or stalls. If you’re unsure which fighter gets the first massive shot, going for the total might be your game.
Nikita Krylov ITD -110 & Ryan Spann by KO in Round 1 +600
It only takes one big hook to Spann to close the show, and Krylov’s story of choosing violence over employing a solid strategy in the cage is enough to make any bettor nervous. One way to mitigate the risk of him throwing caution to the wind and getting cut is partial coverage with your Krylov bet with Spann by first-round knockout. It’s not complete protection, but it will protect you against Spann’s most likely path to victory.
A 0.2 unit bet at +600 odds will cover the full 1.1 unit on Krylov. If you want to include a Spann bid in your hedge, apply the same strategy but use Spann to win on round 1 at +400 and raise your bet to 0.275 units.
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